Dormant Supply Growth — What’s the Trend?

• According to a report from Fidelity Digital Assets, the volume of BTC that has remained unmoved for 10 years or more is now increasing faster than new coins are being issued daily.

• Post the April 2024 halving, the network’s daily issuance rate dropped to about 450 BTC. Meanwhile, about 566 BTC per day are crossing into the “ancient supply” threshold.

• Over 3.4 million BTC (≈ 17 % of total supply) have not moved in at least a decade. Many of these may belong to early miners, lost keys, or long‐term holders.

Why It Matters

• Scarcity narrative strengthening: When fewer coins are available for circulation, it increases the perception of scarcity, which could support bullish views.

• Holder conviction: Coins remaining dormant suggests strong conviction—or the absence of ability to move them (lost wallets).

• Liquidity & volatility implications: If a large portion of supply is essentially “locked,” market movements may be more sensitive to fewer flows in/out.

Risks & Open Questions

• Are some of these coins truly lost forever? If so, they effectively shrink the circulating supply.

• If holders decide to sell, pent-up supply could flood the market, triggering volatility.

• The trend’s sustainability is uncertain — what happens if dormant coins begin to awaken?

Takeaway

This shift in supply dynamics doesn’t guarantee a price surge, but it adds depth to the narrative that Bitcoin is becoming more “illiquid by design”. For traders and long-term investors, watching dormant supply trends could become as important as tracking inflows, mining rewards, or macro factors.